Mychaela Paetow
Ph.D. Candidate in Economics
University of Southern California
About
I am a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Southern California. My primary fields are development and environmental economics.
I study how institutions and markets can be designed to improve environmental outcomes, with ongoing projects in Uganda, Indonesia, India, and South Korea. My work focuses on waste management and recycling, air pollution, and urban transportation.
I will be on the 2026–27 job market.
I am always happy to hear from potential collaborators — feel free to email me.
References
Job Market Paper
Market Power and the Supply of Recyclable Waste: Evidence from Indonesia’s Waste Banks
Abstract
Low- and middle-income countries often rely on private markets to recover the supply of recyclable waste. In our setting, intermediaries set a uniform price per material to heterogeneous sellers. This paper asks how these intermediaries exercise market power over their sellers and what that implies for the recovery of recyclable material. Using 757,559 transactions from a national network of Indonesian waste banks, we estimate the supply of plastic waste facing a single buyer separately for two types of sellers: (i) households and (ii) waste pickers. We employ a shift-share IV strategy, where identification comes from interacting the price of virgin plastic – a substitute good for plastic waste – with each bank’s predetermined plastic revenue share. We estimate a supply elasticity for pickers at 1.5; households’ is indistinguishable from zero. We then ask how banks respond when competition for these sellers changes, using the staggered opening of rival banks, which improves sellers’ outside options without changing what banks receive downstream. In the year after a rival opens, incumbents lose about a third of their plastic, all of it material that pickers delivered; households stay. Incumbents respond on both margins of a uniform price list: they add finer, higher-priced grades onto which pickers move their loads, and they lower the posted price of the existing grades on which most household material remains. Competition raises what the sellers who can leave are paid and widens the markdown on those who stay. This has important implications for environmental policy. Because households do not respond to price, most of a per-kilogram subsidy would be a transfer to sellers who would have delivered anyway. A payment targeted at pickers would recover an additional ton at about half the cost.
Working Papers
Transboundary Pollution and Political Attribution
Draft available upon request
Abstract
This paper studies how transboundary pollution enters domestic politics. When air pollution crosses borders, citizens may observe local pollution without knowing whether the source is foreign or domestic, creating scope for politicians either to provide information or to shift blame abroad. We study South Korea, where fine-dust episodes are salient and pollution from China is a recurring focus of public debate. Combining source-specific pollution shocks with a politician-day panel of Facebook posts by South Korean legislators, we distinguish between environmental attention and explicit attribution to China. Instrumental-variables estimates provide little evidence that exogenous increases in local PM2.5 raise politicians’ broad environmental communication. By contrast, the clearest evidence consistent with strategic foreign attribution appears in partisan heterogeneity: conditional on discussing fine dust, conservative politicians increase foreign attribution in response to both transboundary and domestic shocks, whereas Democratic estimates are small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Transboundary environmental problems thus affect politics through selective blame shifting rather than a uniform increase in foreign attribution.
Work in Progress
Internalizing Environmental Externalities: A Coasean Approach to Urban Solid Waste Management in Kampala, Uganda
Pilot concluded; scale-up underway
Abstract
Cities in developing countries are generating increasing volumes of solid waste, straining existing waste management systems. Open dumping and burning are common means of disposal, generating meaningful environmental and health externalities, especially in low-income communities and informal settlements. We partner with the Kampala Capital City Authority to test a new intervention designed to deter dumping: installing nets to catch household solid waste that would otherwise flow through rainwater drainage channels, causing flooding downstream. We are piloting a mechanism to elicit downhill households’ willingness-to-pay, and uphill households’ willingness-to-accept, to install nets along shared drainage channels, facilitating Coasean bargaining to realign private and social costs from improper waste management practices.
Spatial Misallocation and Supply-Demand Feedback: Evidence from the Boda-Boda Market in Kampala, Uganda
Data use agreement signed; pilot underway
Abstract
We study spatial misallocation in the context of urban mototaxi markets in Kampala, Uganda. Using high-resolution trip data from SafeBoda, Uganda’s leading ride-hailing platform, we document that drivers cluster in a small set of locations while many neighborhoods remain underserved—not because latent demand is low, but because low driver presence discourages ride requests, which in turn discourages drivers from exploring new areas. We argue this feedback loop traps the market in an inefficient equilibrium driven by imperfect information and high search costs on both sides. To test this, we implement a field experiment that provides drivers with real-time information about high-demand areas while notifying riders of nearby driver availability. We expect that coordinated interventions targeting both sides of the market can break the feedback loop and generate welfare gains exceeding those of one-sided approaches, with implications for platform-mediated labor markets in developing economies.
Private Markets for Public Goods: Understanding the Urban Spatial Distribution of Recycling Markets in India
Abstract
Can private markets deliver public goods in the presence of limited state capacity? We study this question in the context of private plastic recycling markets in Maharashtra, India. Informal recycling markets—in which households sell segregated plastic to local middlemen and aggregators—have grown substantially, yet little is known about where these markets emerge or how they interact with the public waste system. We combine ward-level data from the Swachh Survekshan Survey (2024) with a mapping of private plastic recycling operators across Maharashtra and an original survey of household-level plastic prices. Using a spatial model of household recycling decisions, we ask whether private recycling markets substitute for or complement state capacity, and estimate how access to private recyclers affects the flow of plastic waste to municipal landfills.